Underlining the fact that people all over the world have a history of discontent, insurrections (as opposed to revolutions that general mean they were successful) have been with us for a long, long time, for all kinds of reasons, mostly due to discontent, although the discontent is as likely to be stirred up by power seekers as it is to be spontaneous. That probably tells us as much about the people as it does about their governments. The difference today is as much technology as anything: specifically bombs, communications and transportation.
Today we seem to prefer the word terrorism, although our current administration is apparently trying to downplay that name. Terrorism is also not new and the most famous of the practitioners are probably the Nazari Ismailis sect led by hasan ibn al Sabbah after the death of Fatimid caliph al Mustansir in 1094. The word assassin comes from the Persian hashishi which literally means hashish eaters. The assassins promulgated their trade from a hill fortress in the outback of Persia during the 11th to the 13th century in the interest of forcing their religious beliefs on others.
War lords are another piece of the puzzle, particularly prevalent, periodically in China, but most notably between 1916 and 1928 when they were replaced by the republic. War lords are leaders with both military and political control over a sub-national region when a central government has lost control. China during that period was essentially divided among a virulent set of local war lords. Today one occasionally sees the term associated with a failed state, particularly Somalia. It might be stretching it a bit, but it is tempting to refer to what has been happening in Mexico and Central America as warlord-ism, suggesting an obvious link between insurrection/terrorism, warlords and criminal activities.
So what? Well, the unpleasant combination won’t seem to go away and is proving very bothersome. Power seekers, often tribal in nature or at least in inception, use insurrection to spread terrorism, punctuated by assassination, and led by what must increasingly be called warlords, at least when they successfully take over a chunk of territory and are ablt to hold it. The technology that has assisted them so dramatically is obvious enough with leaders running around the world via airplane, with modern vehicles using cell phones and the Internet – and modern weapons, of course. The most talked about modern weapon (not actually so modern) is the IED (improvised explosive device) deployed in vehicles, dug in beside roadways or strapped on suicide bombers (thus assassins). The name originated in Ireland in the 1970s through the use of the IRA, but they were successfully employed in Malaya and Vietnam as well.
So what is the prognosis of the combinations today? IEDs are effective today because they are very difficult to eliminate, especially when people are willing to conceal them in belts and explode themselves along with their often terror oriented assassination targets. Insurrections are easily sold where ignorance and discontent prevail, through effective propaganda spread by charismatic or otherwise influential leaders, who aspire to be warlords, particularly using religious fundamentalism as a motivator; at least that is the most visible prop. That makes them rather popular in some places and at the very least, extremely inconvenient.
Will they take over the world? Not likely, although using those tools they could – and might – take over the governments of some nations from their regionally successful bases. Even that probably wouldn’t last, however, because people of this ilk and motivation are usually not the type to compromise and frequently become the targets of others who wish to depose them and assume their power. So what’s the problem? The process is very destructive, particularly in locales where it is prevalent, but also in the context of international trade – oil for example; international trade needs peaceful environments and cooperation to do its thing. Not that it cannot survive without it, but it becomes much more disruptive, and much more expensive. Which is why we have to give it concern and worry about it - beyond the obvious.
Can it be eliminated? Not without difficulty – and loss of individual freedoms and liberty. We already complain mightily about the inconvenience of body checks at airports, and even at some schools and public buildings. And there is always chance of 9-11 type attacks which are VERY inconvenient and unpleasant, to say nothing of costly. Additionally, we have those that oppose use of force and intelligence collection to attempt, at least, to control it. There is clearly a conflict between freedom and liberty, and population controls for security purposes that inconvenience us, and for which we must pay. Add to this discontents and even violence that are likely to arise from severe economic conditions, should they occur. At a point in time it can be very difficult to make distinctions among criminality, insurrection, and violently expressed discontent.
Interestingly there is even a new video game entitled War Lord. You have to take your hat off to popular innovations that grab the markets, even if you find it irritatingly distasteful; we have, after all, always been captivated by swashbuckling bad guys that tweak – even violently - the institutions upon which we rely while reviling their success.
The world about us is swirling about in a manner almost uncontrolled; at least that’s the way we are encouraged to view it. And many use the swirl for their own benefit. Who ever said democracy and free markets were going to be easy?